Dear BCHD:
Suppose someone wants to determine how much residents of a given area save on health care relative to similar communities. One approach, apparently embraced by Gallup in claiming residents of BCHD have $182 million in lower health expenses, would be to identify certain health conditions—obesity, diabetes, and smoking come to mind--and compare BCHD “costs” to US averages.
When Gallup, and Dan Witter, its employee, did that, it found BCHD residents have lower rates of these three conditions than average US residents. Gallup concluded that the savings of $182 million were due to BCHD. To say that is crazy methodology is an understatement. There was no effort to look across many other diseases and conditions, to correct for participation in BCHD programs, to consider how results might be affected by age, income, family histories, and so forth. How about cancer, Alzheimer’s/dementia, heart problems, or other health conditions? Further, Gallup relied on questionnaires mailed to residents but Gallup did not differentiate results according to which respondents actually participated in BCHD programs. The logic seems to be that the choice of conditions and level of participation are irrelevant to finding “savings.” Was that to promote the notion that BCHD truly lowers area health expenditure?
Additionally, independent statistical analysis provided to BCHD through StopBCHD demonstrates that including household income in the Gallup spending model eliminates nearly all of the savings Gallup and BCHD would claim come from BCHD programs. In short, if the Gallup results were valid, adding income to the statistical model would increase—not decrease—program savings.
Before the public or the BCHD Board adopts the Gallup findings, additional study would be helpful. Were all conditions included, including those where BCHD disease states exceeded those elsewhere? Were the results adjusted for age, income, climate, and so forth. Apparently not!
We wait for BCHD to provide the public with an unbiased, complete study of its own effects on local health. How long should we wait?
Local Homeowner